SpaceX Stock Closes Below Debut Price in Post-Inclusion Slide
The decline to $148 a share comes less than a month after the aerospace firm's record-breaking IPO and has erased most of the initial gains despite buying pressure from index-tracking funds.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp., trading as SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX), closed at $148 on Wednesday, July 8, slipping below the stock's $150 debut price for the second consecutive session. [18] The slide comes just two days after the company's highly anticipated inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7. [6, 11]
The aerospace and artificial intelligence company launched the largest initial public offering in history on June 12, 2026, raising approximately $75 billion with shares priced at $135. [1, 12, 14] In the weeks following its debut, strong investor demand pushed the stock to a peak of $225.64. [18] The recent close at $148 represents a drop of about 35% from that high, erasing nearly all gains since its first day of trading. [18]
Index Inclusion Fails to Buoy Price
SpaceX's addition to the Nasdaq-100 was fast-tracked under new exchange rules, allowing it to join the benchmark index just 15 trading days after its IPO. [6, 8] This event requires passive index funds and ETFs that track the Nasdaq-100 to purchase SpaceX shares to balance their portfolios, a move that was expected to create significant buying pressure. [7]
However, the stock's performance reflects a "sell-the-news" pattern, where a price runs up in anticipation of an event, only to fall after it occurs. A similar trend was observed when other major companies were added to key indexes in prior years. [9, 18] The selling pressure has so far outweighed the forced buying from index funds.
Valuation and Market Outlook
Even after the recent pullback, SpaceX maintains a market capitalization of approximately $1.9 trillion, placing it among the world's most valuable public companies. [18] The company's valuation is supported by the rapid growth of its Starlink satellite internet division, which accounted for over 60% of the company's $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. [1, 18]
Investors are also watching the company's financial results and upcoming share lock-up expirations. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and an additional $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026 amid heavy investment in its Starship and AI programs. [18] Furthermore, a small portion of the company's total shares, estimated at around 5%, were sold in the IPO. [11] Staggered lock-up expirations, beginning in August, will allow insiders and early investors to sell their shares, potentially increasing the supply available on the market. [10, 11, 16]
Sources
- SpaceX IPO: Valuation, Timeline and Investment Options
- SpaceX IPO Index Inclusion: How Rule Changes for SPY, QQQ, and IWM Force Index Funds to Sell Stocks and Buy SpaceX
- SpaceX Joins the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. Here Are the ETFs That Feel It Most.
- SpaceX stock on Nasdaq-100: timeline, impact on QQQ, 401(k)s
- SpaceX Joins Nasdaq-100 Index on July 7 as One of Fastest Major IPO Additions
- SpaceX (SPCX) Price Prediction: Colossus 2 Lawsuit Threatens Anthropic Contract – $149 Support Holding
- SpaceX Joins Nasdaq 100: Watch Out for Giant Waves of Expiring Lock-Ups
- Goldman Sachs revamps SpaceX stock price target for 2026
- SpaceX IPO Analysis: Is the Trillion SPCX Valuation Justified?
- SpaceX IPO: Don't Get Trapped by the Lockup Dates
- SpaceX Stock Falls 35% From Peak Even After Nasdaq-100 Inclusion
Educational and informational content. Not financial, investment, tax or legal advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.
